Real Time Eurozone GDP Indicator Falls for 4th Consecutive Month

    One of my favorite new economic indicators for the Eurozone is the EuroCoin indicator, which provides a real time gauge of GDP growth. While it is considered a coincident indicator, it acts as a leading indicator because it is released on a monthly basis as opposed to quarterly for GDP reports. In July GDP growth fell to 0.40%, which represents the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Here is the news release:

In July, the €-coin indicator declined moderately, but less than in the previous months, from 0.46% in June to 0.40%. The value of the indicator is consistent with the continuation of the cyclical expansion. The latest decline was due to the performance of financial and equity markets, while manufacturing activity and foreign trade continued to exert upward pressure.

   At this time the indicator is not pointing to a double-dip, at least not yet. Overall, the indicator shows how weak the Euro-zone area is with almost no economic growth and trapped in a debt crisis. The only good news from the report is that manufacturing was strong thanks to an extremely weak Euro.

Black Swan Insights


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