Market Update

   The market has failed near the 200 DMA, which would go along with the idea that we are indeed in a bear market and the 200 DMA is now resistance. So at this point I am looking to short select stocks with a perhaps 6% stop loss on any one individual position. Right now I am looking at shorting/purchasing puts (3-5 month duration) in FCX, X, POT, short oil (DTO), short AUD/JPY (the infamous carry trade). I am still long Africa Oil and Stans Energy which I consider call options. At this point I do not think we are going to have a crash in the market, but we are going to continue to decline to around 850-900 on the S&P.

Black Swan Insights 


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