Another Confirmation Of A Slowing Economy-Trucking Activity Declines in June

   The American Trucking Association's truck tonnage index fell 1.4% in June, which represented the first back to back monthly contraction since March and April of 2009. This number confirms what we saw in June with railroad carloadings. ATA economist Bob Costello noted:
that the two sequential decreases reflect an economy that is slowing. Furthermore, growth in truck tonnage is likely to moderate in the months ahead as the economy decelerates and year-over-year comparisons become more difficult.

   The only question at this point is not if the economy slows, but by how much and if we face a double-dip. Personally I am in the double dip camp and expect it to occur between the 4th quarter of 2010 and the 1st quarter of 2011. The economy got a sugar high in 2009-early 2010 with the stimulus package and money printing by the Fed. These programs are over and the economy is still weak and vulnerable to external shocks (e.g. EU debt crisis).

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