EuroCoin Indicator falls for third straight month in June

   The Eurocoin indicator, which bills itself as the "Euro Area Economy in One Figure." reported a decline in Euro area GDP growth from 0.55% in May to just 0.46% in Jun. This marks the third consecutive monthly decline for the indicator. The Eurocoin claims to represent real time GDP data of the Euro-zone on a monthly basis. It seems the PIGS debt crisis has begun finally to take its toll on the larger EU economy. This little known indicator has a good track record as a leading economic indicator, which is consistently ahead of quarterly GDP reports. Their website explains how the methodology works:
€-coin collates a large collection of statistical data (industrial production, business surveys, stock market and financial data, demand indicators, and more) and extracts the information that is relevant to forecast GDP. It tracks underlying GDP growth, preceding official GDP releases by several months. Essentially, the index:

(i) gives a monthly “smoothed” estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area;

(ii) highlights the underlying trend by adjusting the growth rate for short-term fluctuations and measurement errors; that is, the index figure is an indicator of the euro area’s actual growth momentum.
 I am surprised more people don't follow this helpful indicator.


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