The Future According to Intrade--the prediction market

   Have you ever wanted to know the outcome of a future event? Of course you have, but you know that it is impossible because you are not clairvoyant. Well meet the next best thing--the market. Intrade is a interesting site that makes a market in future events--political, economic, social ,etc by allowing users to bet on future outcomes.  As it turns out the market is surprisingly accurate and can give you a leg up 3-5 months before the actual event happens. I always like to keep an eye on what Intrade is thinking. Here are some future outcomes predicted by the Intrade market:

  •  will not go bankrupt by Dec 2011 (only 10% chance)
  • CEO Tony Hayward will depart by Dec 31, 2010 (90% chance)
US November Elections
  • Republicans will take control of the House of Representatives by a slim margin (very close--only 54% chance)
  • Democrats will hold on to their Senate Majority by a small amount (72%)
Climate, and Cap and Trade Legislation
  • little chance of the US Congress passing a climate bill by Dec 31, 2010 (only 20%)
  • average global temperatures will increase in 2010 compared to 2009 (quite high conviction 90%)
  • the US will have at least 1 Category 3 hurricane make landfall before Nov 30, 2010 (70%)
Middle East Politics/War On Terror
  • the US/and or Israel will not strike Iran by Dec 31, 2011 (only 20% chance)
  • almost zero chance the US will capture Bin Laden by Dec 2011 (only 7%)
  • contrary to what Obama says the US will still have prisoners in Guantanamo Bay by Dec 2011 (only 15% say all prisoners will be gone)
Sarah Palin
  • unfortunately Intrade is predicting that Sarah Palin (bimbo) will announce she is running for President (65% chance)
  • but she will not win the Republican nomination--only a 22% chance (thank god)

Well there you have it, the future according to Intrade. Will the market be correct?

Black Swan Insights



  1. I blew $500 on Intrade last fall... I'll be trying my luck again with Fedex.