BP
- will not go bankrupt by Dec 2011 (only 10% chance)
- CEO Tony Hayward will depart by Dec 31, 2010 (90% chance)
- Republicans will take control of the House of Representatives by a slim margin (very close--only 54% chance)
- Democrats will hold on to their Senate Majority by a small amount (72%)
- little chance of the US Congress passing a climate bill by Dec 31, 2010 (only 20%)
- average global temperatures will increase in 2010 compared to 2009 (quite high conviction 90%)
- the US will have at least 1 Category 3 hurricane make landfall before Nov 30, 2010 (70%)
- the US/and or Israel will not strike Iran by Dec 31, 2011 (only 20% chance)
- almost zero chance the US will capture Bin Laden by Dec 2011 (only 7%)
- contrary to what Obama says the US will still have prisoners in Guantanamo Bay by Dec 2011 (only 15% say all prisoners will be gone)
- unfortunately Intrade is predicting that Sarah Palin (bimbo) will announce she is running for President (65% chance)
- but she will not win the Republican nomination--only a 22% chance (thank god)
Well there you have it, the future according to Intrade. Will the market be correct?
Black Swan Insights
I blew $500 on Intrade last fall... I'll be trying my luck again with Fedex.
ReplyDeleteIntrade is out of business.
ReplyDelete