Market Thoughts 3.31.2010

Markets closed the first quarter of the year fractionally lower. The big news of the day was the awful ADP jobs report which showed a decline of 23 thousand and a weaker than expected PMI report. This did not stop commodities from surging higher with oil and gold up approximately 1%. This despite the EIA's oil inventory numbers which showed crude stocks increased this week by almost 3 million barrels. If this is not proof that the markets are operating in fantasy land than I do not know what does. The oil market is being manipulated higher by speculators who are playing a sick joke on the people of the world. The more the oil inventories increase the higher the price of oil. The only commodity that still has to face weak fundamentals is natural gas which declined again. Nat gas has been down something like 40 of the past 50 days.

I do not expect much movement tomorrow because few traders make large bets ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls which is released on Friday even though US markets are closed. So most traders will be on the sidelines, not wanting to expose themselves to large gaps up or down.

Black Swan Insights


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