Market Summary 3.24.2010

All of the media outlets will tell you that markets declined on "debt woes" out of Europe and Fitch's downgrade of Portugal. In reality the markets declined because there were more sellers than buyers. You never really know why the markets go up or down on any particular day but the media feels compelled to give you are reason.Anyway the S&P 500 closed down 6.38 to 1,167.75.

Economic numbers out today were mixed with new home sales falling to a new record low (actually good for the housing market) and Feb. durable goods rising 0.5%.

Anyway gold, oil, copper, and most commodities were lower with the Dollar Index climbing to 81.83. EIA oil inventories (+7.4 million barrels) confirmed our suspicion that we now have a huge oil glut yet the price of oil remains above $80. Gotta love the speculators who keep pushing the price higher thanks to Ben Bernanke's cheap money. If fundamentals meant anything, oil would be around $50. Gold was a major disappointment today as it broke through the key support level of $1100.

Tomorrow we will get initial and continuing jobless claims with consensus estimates of 450,0000 and 4,562,000. The markets will largely ignore these numbers as they seem to do every week. After all you can apparently have a V-shape recovery with millions jobless. Its called the "Goldilocks economy."

Black Swan Insights


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