Market Thoughts 3.25.2010 Watch Out Below

If you are a bull you despise days like today. All market gapped up strongly at the open and continued to surge throughout the day. Then during the the last 2 hours the markets started to fall off a cliff. Only the Dow was able to hold on to menial gains. The S&P and Nasdaq closed slightly negative.

Commodities followed equities and closed mainly unchanged with oil still above $80. The only market where fundamentals rule is natural gas which fell another 3% closing below $4. Gold is was slightly higher at 1094 while silver closed up 10cents at $16.74.

The major news of the day was the announced Greece bailout which will now involve the IMF in cooperation with the EU. The EURO did not like the news and closed below 1.33. Weakness in the euro translated into strength for the Federal Reserve Note. Overall the dollar index remained flat.

Today could be the start of a reversal in equity markets. If you follow candlestick charting, today's action would constitue a gravestone Doji which is bearish. But these patterns are never 100% accurate. I am still short oil, fcx, x, and hold OI puts. Long natural gas, Limoneria, Dean Foods, MO, and Afrcia Oil.

Black Swan Insights


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