Thoughts on today's market action

Markets gapped lower to start the session and then quickly melted-up as usual. The bears(me) looked like idiots once again. S&P and other indices closed higher along with commodities. Gold and the dollar closed fractionally lower. About the only standouts were the big pharma companies, which caught a strong bid due to the healthcare bill passing (good for pharma bad for US citizens). My positions did not work well considering I am short oil and the market in general. I have not made any changes and don't plan to. The market is still overbought and could easily correct if the Greek debt crisis intensifies and or the Germans put the brakes on the Greece bailout. One of the main reasons I am bearish on the market and commodities is because I think China is going to slow dramatically in the second half, which would have negative consequences for the global economy. A look at the Shanghai stock exchange(SSEC) confirms this. The SSEC peaked in August in 2009 and has been trending down since. If you look at a chart over the last few years you will notice that China often leads other markets. Chinese market peaked in late 2007 and begun to crash. Western markets held up for a while but eventually followed China down.

Black Swan Insights


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