Black Swan Insights

Markets rose again as nothing seems to stop the bullish momentum (this happens when the FED is literally printing money). The only exceptions were some commodities such as gold and oil which declined slightly. The API oil inventories came out after the close which naturally showed an increae of 1.6 million barrels. This is the 12th straight increase in the weekly inventories but nothing seems to matter to crude which seems oblivious to market fundamentals. Natural gas enjoyed a rare up day and remains one of the few commodities I am willing to buy.

While I am not terribly bearish I am waiting for a significant correction before establishing any new positions. I am looking at NPK, ATRI, LZR, ACFN, and POT to buy on a pullback. I am also coming up wih a list of junior miners to purchase.

Black Swan Insights

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Markets closed the first quarter of the year fractionally lower. The big news of the day was the awful ADP jobs report which showed a decline of 23 thousand and a weaker than expected PMI report. This did not stop commodities from surging higher with oil and gold up approximately 1%. This despite the EIA's oil inventory numbers which showed crude stocks increased this week by almost 3 million barrels. If this is not proof that the markets are operating in fantasy land than I do not know what does. The oil market is being manipulated higher by speculators who are playing a sick joke on the people of the world. The more the oil inventories increase the higher the price of oil. The only commodity that still has to face weak fundamentals is natural gas which declined again. Nat gas has been down something like 40 of the past 50 days.

I do not expect much movement tomorrow because few traders make large bets ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls which is released on Friday even though US markets are closed. So most traders will be on the sidelines, not wanting to expose themselves to large gaps up or down.

Black Swan Insights

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Words of Wisdom from Leonardo da Vinci

1. I have been impressed with the urgency of doing. Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Being willing is not enough; we must do.

2.Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.

3.Life well spent is long.

4.Life is pretty simple: You do some stuff. Most fails. Some works. You do more of what works. If it works big, others quickly copy it. Then you do something else. The trick is the doing something else.

5. Marriage is like putting your hand into a bag of snakes in the hope of pulling out an eel.

Black Swan Insights

Market Thoughts 4.13.2010

Market Thoughts 3.31.2010