Current thoughts on the market

I am currently bearish on the stock market because it is overbought and vulnerable to a short term correction. To express my bearish opinion I am currently short oil through the DTO (oil ultrashort), May puts on Owens Illinois, and short positions in Freeport (FCX) and US Steel (X). I will be increasing my short positions on any further weakness. This remains a risky trade because I am going against the prevailing trend which is up. While I am net short I do have a few long positions: Dean foods (DF) because it is fundamentally cheap and could be a takeover target, Altria (MO) because it is a core 10% position in my portfolio that I will never sell, and Limoneira (LMNR.PK) which is a special case that I will explain later in depth. I am also long Nat Gas betting that it will get a short term boost after being killed over the last 30 days.

Black Swan Insights

FD: I am not an investment advisor and nothing on this site should be interpreted as investment advice. Please consult with your own financial advisor before investing in the stock market or any financial asset.


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