Predictions From Intrade

One of my favorite indicators is Intrade, a site which allows people to bet on future events. While the stock market is no longer a predictor of the economy, other markets like Intrade are thriving and show that not all markets are broken. So lets see what Intrade is currently forecasting:

2010 Elections

  • Republicans will take back control of the House of Representatives (90% certainty)
  • There is a good chance that Republicans will gain 50 or more seats (57% chance)
  • Democrats will lose seats in the Senate but will still maintain a slight majority (56.9%)
  • In California Jerry Brown will be the next Governor (85% chance)
  • Barbra Boxer will defeat Carly Fiorina for the Senate in California
  • Rand Paul (of the Tea party) will win the Senate in Kentucky (81% chance)
  • California will defeat the marijuana legalization proposition (only 36% chance of passing)
Wars and the Middle East
  • There is a very low chance of the US/Israel attacking Iran by Dec 2011 (only 23%)
  • No chance of ever catching Bin Laden by June 2011 (8% chance)--he is probably dead anyway
  • Guantanamo Bay prison will still be open by the end of 2011 (6% chance of it being closed)

  • The US economy will not enter a recession during 2011 (only 30% chance)
2012 Elections
  • Sarah Palin will run for President before the end of 2011 (70%)
  • But she will not win the Republican nomination (only 18% chance)
  • Currently Romney is the front runner for the Republican nomination (29%)
  • Obama has a slight edge in 2012 against a Republican challenger (60%)

There you have it, the future according to Intrade. Personally, I have found Intrade more accurate than opinion polls so I always keep an eye on what it is predicting.

Black Swan Insights


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