Today we got the weekly AAII sentiment survey which shows what the retail crowd is up to. Bullish sentiment rose to 51.23% from 49.62%, but bearish sentiment fell 21.60% from 25.19% during the previous week. The percentage of investors who described themselves as neutral on the stock market rose to 27.16% from 25.19%, according to the poll.
Above 50% signals extreme bullishness and usually coincides with a decline in the stock market. However, if you take a look at the charts below you will see that bullish sentiment has been high for quite some time and yet the market continued higher. That being said we have the necessary ingredients for a market top, especially when you consider how low bearish sentiment currently is at 21.60%.
Here is a short-term chart of AAII sentiment.
Click charts for larger image
Here is a longer term which shows AAII bullish sentiment compared to the S&P 500.
Here is a longer term chart which shows AAII bearish sentiment compared to the S&P 500.
Black Swan Insights
Retail Traders Are Bullish According To AAII Survey
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