Don't expect the dismal employment situation to change anytime soon. Most forecasts predict unemployment to rise in 2011. There is no catalyst for new job creation in the US. QE is not the solution, but is politically popular. From the BLS:
Nonfarm payroll employment edged down (-95,000) in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Government employment declined (-159,000), reflecting both a drop in the number of temporary jobs for Census 2010 and job losses in local government. Private-sector payroll employment continued to trend up modestly (+64,000).The markets of course love the number because it makes QE 2 150% assured. But remember, the market is only going up in nominal terms which may make people feel better, but leaves them flat to down in real terms.
The jobless rate was unchanged at 9.6 percent. Of the 14.8 million unemployed, 41.7 percent had been jobless for 27 weeks or more in September, about the same as in August. The employment-population ratio held at 58.5 percent in September. Among the employed, however, the number of involuntary part-time workers rose by 612,000 over the month to a series high of 9.5 million.
Black Swan Insights
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Payrolls will decline.
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