NABE Survey: Forecasters Cut Growth Outlook For 2010, 2011

The professional forecasters are finally starting to wake up to economic reality. Today the National Association of Business Economics (a bunch of supercilious economists) downgraded its estimates for US growth for 2010 and 2011.  From Dow Jones:
According to a study released by the NABE, analysts now expect to see the U.S. gross domestic product rise by 2.6% this year, versus the 3.2% expectation held back in May. They expect growth to move forward at a modest 2.6% next year as well, cutting that estimate by the same amount. Consumer spending levels are expected to be modest as unemployment weighs, with the upcoming holiday spending season seen rising by an "especially weak" 2.5%.

"Confidence in the expansion's durability is intact, but recent economic weakness has prompted many panelists to scale back expectations for the year ahead," said incoming NABE president Richard Wobbekind, of the University of Colorado-Boulder. "This summer's slowdown has exposed the economy's sensitivity to wealth losses, the unwinding of debt, and the reductions in economic stimulus," he said.

The forecasters predict a slow recovery in hiring, with payroll gains to rise an average 150,000 or less into the latter half of 2011, before moving up into the 170,000 to 175,000 range. The jobless rate, which was at 9.6% in September, is seen hanging around 9.5% through the middle of the next year before moving down to a still-weak 9.2% by the close of the coming year.

NABE described respondents as "sanguine" price deflation will be avoided, with the personal consumption expenditures index stripped of food and energy costs seen bottoming out at 1% this year before moving to a 1.4% gain next year. "NABE panelists continue to rank 'inflation' as a slightly greater worry than 'deflation,' but both concerns are overshadowed by other issues," the report said.
The funny part---Do you want to be certified by the esteemed NABE? It has never been easier, in just one day, you can earn The NABE Foundation's online Certificate in Economic Measurement from your home or office. The NABE Foundation's Certificate in Economic Measurement can be completed entirely online at your own pace. This program is designed to strengthen your knowledge of economic statistics and analytical techniques, enhancing your ability to add value in your workplace. LMAO! No wonder these professional forecasters are always wrong. It only takes one day to receive some bullshit certificate from the NABE.

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