2010 US Congressional Elections and 2012 Presidential Race
- Republicans have a good chance of taking control of the House in November (70% chance)
- However, Democrats will probably hold on to the Senate (69% but down from 90% back in Jan)
- Sarah Palin will announce she is running for President (66%)
- Fortunately, Palin will not win the Republican nomination (only 17%)
- Romney has the best chance of winning the nomination (32%)
- Obama still has the advantage going into 2012 (60.5%)
Politics and Current Affairs
- Don't ask don't tell will not be repealed during 2010 (only 13%)
- Rahm Emanuel will depart before the end of Obama's first term (84%)
- Defense Secretary Gates will also depart before 2012 (70%)
- Same-sex marriages will not resume in California by Dec 31, 2011 (only 10%)
- Low chance California legalizes marijuana in Nov 2010 (only 37%)
- US Supreme Court will not overturn health care bill as unconstitutional by Dec 31, 2011 (10%)
War and the Middle East
- No attack on Iran by the US or Israel by Dec 31, 2011 (only 26% chance)
- Bin Laden will not be captured by Dec 31, 2011 (only 7%)
Economy and Taxes
- Unemployment rate to stay above 9.25% in 2010 (95%)
- Q4 GDP will be positive despite the economy slowing (64%)
- US economy to avoid recession during 2011 (only 30% chance of double-dip)
- US to maintain AAA rating through Dec 31, 2011 (only 20% chance of downgrade)
- Good news for California--little chance the state will default by Dec 31, 2011 (only 5% chance)
- Federal Tax rates will likely increase for the top 1% (72%)
Climate
- 2010 to be the warmest year on record (72%) but 2011 will not be (only 29%)
- Cap and trade will not be passed in the US by Dec 31, 2011 (only 21.5%)
- But has a chance of passing by Dec 31, 2012 (45%)
Black Swan Insights
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