Using Intrade To Predict The Future

Forget psychics when it comes to predicting the future, instead try the free market and people willing to wager on future outcomes. This is where Intrade comes in; the site allows individuals to bet on the future and as it turns out, the market has a pretty good track record predicting the future. Here are a few predictions from Intrade:

2010 US Congressional Elections and 2012 Presidential Race

  • Republicans have a good chance of taking control of the House in November (70% chance)
  • However, Democrats will probably hold on to the Senate (69% but down from 90% back in Jan)
  • Sarah Palin will announce she is running for President (66%)
  • Fortunately, Palin will not win the Republican nomination (only 17%)
  • Romney has the best chance of winning the nomination (32%)
  • Obama still has the advantage going into 2012 (60.5%)
Politics and Current Affairs
  • Don't ask don't tell will not be repealed during 2010 (only 13%)
  • Rahm Emanuel will depart before the end of Obama's first term (84%)
  • Defense Secretary Gates will also depart before 2012 (70%)
  • Same-sex marriages will not resume in California by Dec 31, 2011 (only 10%)
  • Low chance California legalizes marijuana in Nov 2010 (only 37%)
  • US Supreme Court will not overturn health care bill as unconstitutional by Dec 31, 2011 (10%)
War and the Middle East
  • No attack on Iran by the US or Israel by Dec 31, 2011 (only 26% chance)
  • Bin Laden will not be captured by Dec 31, 2011 (only 7%)
Economy and Taxes
  • Unemployment rate to stay above 9.25% in 2010 (95%)
  • Q4 GDP will be positive despite the economy slowing (64%)
  • US economy to avoid recession during 2011 (only 30% chance of double-dip)
  • US to maintain AAA rating through Dec 31, 2011 (only 20% chance of downgrade)
  • Good news for California--little chance the state will default by Dec 31, 2011 (only 5% chance)
  • Federal Tax rates will likely increase for the top 1% (72%)
  • 2010 to be the warmest year on record (72%) but 2011 will not be (only 29%)
  • Cap and trade will not be passed in the US by Dec 31, 2011 (only  21.5%)
  • But has a chance of passing by Dec 31, 2012 (45%)

Black Swan Insights


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