CoreLogic: Home Prices Flat In July

CoreLogic released its home price index which remained flat in July on a year over year basis. It is important to keep in mind that this index uses a 3 month average (May, June, July) in computing prices so it is slow in catching major changes. We got data yesterday from DataQuick which was for August and it showed a strong deterioration in prices from July. So expect the Corelogic index to follow suit in the next few months. From the press release:

Corelogic, a leading provider of information, analytics and business services, today released its Home Price Index (HPI) that showed that home prices in the U.S. remained flat in July as transaction volumes continue to decline. This was the first time in five months that no year-over-year gains were reported. According to the CoreLogic HPI, national home prices, including distressed sales showed no change in July 2010 compared to July 2009. June 2010 HPI showed a 2.4 percent* year-over-year gain compared to June 2009.

Highlights as of July 2010

The top five states with the highest appreciation, including distressed sales, were: Maine (+4.5 percent), South Dakota (+4.3 percent), California (+3.7 percent), New York (+3.0 percent), and Virginia (+2.6 percent).

The top five states with the greatest depreciation, including distressed sales, were Idaho (-12.6 percent), Alabama (-9.7 percent), Utah (-5.6 percent), Oregon (-4.8 percent) and Washington (-4.3 percent).

Excluding distressed sales, the top five states with the highest appreciation were: South Dakota (+5.1 percent), District of Columbia (+4.9 percent), New York (+3.4 percent), Mississippi (+2.8 percent), and California (+2.8 percent).

Excluding distressed sales, the top five states with the greatest depreciation were: Idaho (-9.9 percent), Michigan (-6.7 percent), Arizona (-5.6 percent), Nevada (-4.8 percent) and Oregon (-3.8 percent).

36 states experienced price declines in July on a year-over-year basis, twice the number in May and the highest number since last November when prices nationally were still declining.

Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to July 2010) is -27.7 percent. Excluding distressed properties, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period is -19.5 percent.

 "Although home prices were flat nationally on a year-over-year basis, the majority of states experienced price declines and price declines are spreading across more geographies relative to a few months ago. Home prices fell in 36 states in July on a year-over-year basis, nearly twice the number in May and the highest since last November when national home prices were declining," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.

This data seems to reflect the last of the home buyer's tax credit which artificially propped up prices (especially in bubble areas like California). We know from other data that once the credit expired, sales plunged bringing prices down.

Black Swan Insights

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CoreLogic: Home Prices Flat In July