Global Trade Fell In July

This is an important indicator for central banks because it is an early indicator of global trade. From CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis:

• July 2010: world trade down by 0.8% month on month, after an upwardly revised 0.8% increase in June.

• July 2010: world trade momentum declines for sixth consecutive month to 2.8%.

• July 2010: world industrial production increases marginally with 0.1%.

Based on preliminary data, world trade volume decreased by 0.8% in July from the previous month, following a marginally upwardly revised increase of 0.8% in June. Across the world, import volumes were either flat (emerging Asia) or declining (everywhere else, most notably in the United States). Export volumes in most emerging economies declined substantially, while those in advanced economies reversed sign compared to June: exports from the United States and Japan registered strong increases, but exports from the Euro Area decreased.

Monthly trade figures are volatile and focus on ‘momentum’ is therefore preferable. At 2.8%, momentumremains positive in July. It has been gradually decreasing since January 2010 however, when it peaked at 6.4%.

Global Trade Fell In July