A little good news on the jobs front. The Department of Labor reported that in the week ending Nov. 6, seasonally adjusted initial claims came in at 435,000, a decrease of 24,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 459,000. I should point out that the non-seasonally adjusted data came in at 449,905. The 4-week moving average was 446,500, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised average of 456,500.
You can see from the chart below the 4 week moving average has had a tough time falling below 450,000. This was the first time since 3/27/2010 that the number has fallen below 450,000. Generally, a sustained drop below 400,000 signals the end of a recession. We still have a long way until we get there.
Black Swan Insights