I'm buying stocks

After being bearish on the market for a while and being short AUD/JPY, oil, and a few general stocks I am finally turning bullish on the markets. All of the usual technical and sentiment indicators point to the markets bottoming and at the very least getting a nice bounce. I look at a composite of indicators including the cboe put/call, percent of stocks above their 50 day moving average, 52 new highs/lows, nyse percent bullish, nasdaq sentiment index, the vix (anything above 35), nyse advancers/decliners, and a sentiment index from sentimentrader.com. All of these indicators show that the market has either bottomed or is very close. So I am now long ATPG, LMNR, HOG, WYN, APL, MO, and looking to purchase some oil and maybe long AUD/JPY.

I will either look like a genius or a fool. The only way I am wrong is if this European crisis worsens dramatically or their is a crash in the Chinese economy. I happen to think the probabilities are low so I am willing to take the risk. The ECB is printing money so that should provide some sort of stop gap measure to the debt crisis in Greece, Portugal, and Spain.

I have noticed that sentiment within the markets has fallen off a cliff from euphoria 4 weeks ago to manic depression. Every one I know is bearish expecting the markets to fall 30-40% more. They say a crash is imminent and now (after a 12% decline) is the time to sell. Folks you do not make money buying at 1220 on the S&P and selling at 1080. But that seems to be the general consensus. I even saw a poll on CNBC where 40% of their viewers believed the DOW was headed to 5000. I would expect this to be the ultimate contrarian indicator because usually these fools are bullish. The Fast money crew is also bearish telling people to be cautious blah blah blah. I remember they were telling people to buy commodity stocks at S&P 1220 and go long oil at 80 because it was going to 90. Talk about leading the sheep to the slaughter.

I have a hard time believing that the market is going to crash or fall dramatically if that is the general consensus of all market participants. This is a paranoid schizophrenic market that has serious emotional problems. The only way to make money in this market is to buy market depression and sell market euphoria.

Good luck

Black Swan Insights
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Wild day in the Market--Dow plunges 1,000 intraday


Big day today. The computers have officially taken over with the various algorithms which account for 70% of all trades. Some computer glitch almost destroyed financial markets today. This has got to stop. Bring back people and ban all high frequency trading and computer trading.

Overall today was a good day for me. I was short crude oil, short AUD/JPY, and long OI puts. However the insane market movement almost gave me a heart attack. I saw volatility which I have never seen before (not even 2008). I watched AUD/JPY fall 700 pips in a matter of minutes. Liquidity vanished in all markets at the same time. I got screwed when I tried to sell my puts (for a nice profit) but the spread was BID $6/ASK $11!!! This is egregious and shows you how precarious liquidity is in this market. My trading platform broke down and I was forced to call the trading desk to close out my short positions. I think this will be a buying opportunity but not quite yet.

Retail investors are going to officially abandon this market after all of this CRAP!! Watching stocks like Procter fall from $61 to 35 in 10 minutes is unheard of. This should not be possible. The system is rigged against you because these computer programs can trade in milliseconds. I believe that tomorrow's NFP's will be positive and give the market a slight boost but I expect more selling next week. The only good thing about today was GOLD!! Gold is now being offically recongized as a currency and starting to trade like one.

Good luck trading,

Black Swan Insights

Ps. Sorry for not posting lately--my dog came down with a nasty disease which temporarily paralyzed him and so I have spent the last two weeks caring for him. Thanks
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Crude Oil's Widening Contango


One of the best indicators of true oil demand is looking at whether oil is trading in backwardation or contango. If oil is in backwardation (front month contract is more expensive than future months) that shows there is strong current demand for oil and that is why people are willing to pay a slight premium. If oil is in contango (front month is cheaper than future months) it is an indication that demand for crude oil is currently weak.

With this said what can we tell about the future price of oil by examining oil's current price structure. Right now oil is in contango with current demand relatively weak but investors and the market believe that it will pick up again in the future. But what is particularly interesting for traders is that the amount of the contango has widened quite a bit. About 10 days ago the cost of rolling a an oil contract from one month to another was 30 cents. However by the close of today the contango had increased to $1.50 per month. To me this shows that current demand is weakening--against the general market expectations of increasing demand. It will be illuminating to see how this plays out: either demand for oil picks up dramatically in the next few weeks (typically May,June,July are good months for crude oil) or there needs to be a severe price adjustment lower to reflect market fundamentals.

I also like the fact that the entire oil market is heavily skewed to the long side which could help the accelerate the price adjustment by dumping their positions. You can see from the chart below that large specs are heavily long oil while the commericals (who are usually right) are heavily short.


You can see from the following charts that the fundamentals of oil are poor with high inventories, not only in crude oil but also in gasoline and distillates. One other factor that should also impact prices is the recent volcano eruption in Iceland which has grounded European flights. This had caused a large glut of jet fuel (which is an oil derivative) and add to the high inventory numbers. This is why I am currently short oil (have been for 1 month). However this is somewhat of a dangerous position because it goes against the seasonal trend in oil prices which usually leads to an increase in prices due to the summer driving season. But I am willing to take the risk for a good potential reward (like oil going to $65).

Crude Oil Inventories


Gasoline Inventories (egregious levels of inventories but I am still paying $3.30 a gallon in California LMAO!)


Distillate Inventories

Chart Sources: Nowandfutures.com

Black Swan Insights
(Still short crude oil)
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Market Thoughts 4.19.2010

Asian and European markets fell quite hard (over 1%) overnight but that meant little for US investors who in normal Pavlovian fashion bought the correction (defined as 1.5% drop in the market). All Us indices except for the Nasdaq closed higher by about .5%. However commodities got knocked with oil closing lower by $1.55 to 81.69 and copper ending fractionally lower. Its days like today when you feel the markets are being rigged. Unusually large block trades in SPY and S&p 500 futures jams the market higher on no news is always suspicious.

Even though the market was higher and I am mainly short the market, today was a good day. My oil short is finally getting back to even and my puts in OI are looking up. I am also short AUD/JPY at 86.88 which has been working. I am still short and have not covered any positions. I still think we are going to have a 10% correction in US markets and preparing accordingly. I think today's action was simply idiot dip buyers who desperately want in the market and will view any dip as an excellent buying opportunity. These people will get steamrolled during the real market correction.

Black Swan Insights
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A little justice? GS stock tumbes on fraud lawsuit



Thank god the SEC finally got around to this lawsuit. Next up--CRIMINAL lawsuits against GS executives. These criminals need to be in prison for the rest of their lives. I think this is why GS stock is being murdered on high volume. The market expects more lawsuits by all of the clients who have been taken by Goldman. GS routinely sold bad assets (mainly mortgage derivatives) to pension funds when GS was short the same security. Investment banks should not be able to do this without first disclosing whether they are long or short. G

Black Swan Insights
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Tax Day for American Slaves


Well today is one of the worst days of the year for American slaves--paying illegal and unconstitutional taxes to the US government. Its ironic that the US fought a war with Britain over illegal taxes but now we pay over 55% of our hard earned money to the government (started in 1913). Even medieval serfs only had to pay 33% to their lords. The founding fathers would be ashamed of us. Do our taxes go to anything worthwhile? Of course not. It goes to the private wall street banks who have stolen trillions and bankrupted the US economy. Also we get to pay for illegal foreign wars which make the defense contractors rich. And if you try to avoid taxes--the US will persecute you and send you to prison for up to 15 years (they are very effiecnt in this respect). But multinational companies do not have to pay taxes thanks to their creative tax lawyers. Goldman Sachs and Intel for example pay only 1% in taxes. The government will not go after corporations for evading taxes. In fact IRS audits of corporations are declining while audits of individuals are rising. We live in a police state which we are forced to finance through taxation. Americans are no longer free!!

Black Swan Insights
(AKA American Tax Slave)
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Market Thoughts 4.13.2010

Markets rose again as nothing seems to stop the bullish momentum (this happens when the FED is literally printing money). The only exceptions were some commodities such as gold and oil which declined slightly. The API oil inventories came out after the close which naturally showed an increae of 1.6 million barrels. This is the 12th straight increase in the weekly inventories but nothing seems to matter to crude which seems oblivious to market fundamentals. Natural gas enjoyed a rare up day and remains one of the few commodities I am willing to buy.

While I am not terribly bearish I am waiting for a significant correction before establishing any new positions. I am looking at NPK, ATRI, LZR, ACFN, and POT to buy on a pullback. I am also coming up wih a list of junior miners to purchase.

Black Swan Insights
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EU/IMF bailout package for Greece approved

Well the bailout for Greece is now official as the EU elite pledged 30 billion euros to the bankrupt nation. You notice that it does not matter what the German or French people think--all that matter is what the EU elite decide behind closed doors without any accountability. This is what happens in the undemocratic EU. Along with EU money the IMF contributed to the bailout with 15 billion euros which I am told should keep Greece solvent for about 1 year. However an interesting tidbit from a Greek spokesman indicated that the money would be approx. 80 billion euros over 3 years. Of course anyone following the Greek situation will see that this does not solve Greece's problems. Giving a bankrupt country more cheap loans is like giving an alcoholic more liquor.

What I believe will be the important point regarding this situation is how the German and French public react to this. As the two largest economies in the EU they will be on the hook for most of the money. Do the German and French people accept the responsibility for Greece's overspending? Are they willing to suffer higher taxes and less social welfare? And more importantly are they willing to extend the same bailout terms to Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and possibly Italy? In my opinion this will be the issue that destroys the EU once and for all. Anyway the Euro is trading higher in early Asian trading. One would think that it would trade down on the news but then again the market is peculiar.

Black Swan Insights
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My Investment in the Limoneira Company

UPDATE--Position Sold July 1--$21

I was first attracted to Limoneira because I live within 25 miles of the company's headquarters in Santa Paula, CA. I was intrigued with the company's many valuable assets, mainly its large land holdings. What is particularly interesting is that no one on Wall Street had ever heard of the company. There are no analysts following the company, and it is largely forgotten as it trades on the pink sheets. These kinds of companies are my favorite because they are completely unknown except to local investors. This creates opportunity!

About Limoneira

Limoneira engages primarily in growing citrus and avocados, picking and hauling citrus, packing lemons, and operating housing rentals and other real estate operations. The company also engages in real estate development:

Market Cap. Approx $197 million

Company Website: Limoneira.com


Investment Analysis

While growing and packaging agricultural products provide the company with the majority of its revenue, the real value in Limoneria is the company's land assets totaling 7,300 acres: 4,000 acres in Santa Paula, 500 acres in Santa Barbara, 700 acres in San Luis Obispo, and the rest in the San Joaqin Valley. Anyone who lives in Ventura County area will tell you how desirable the location is with the beach only a few minutes away and a pleasant climate.

The company's most promising assets are two properties called East Area 1 (563 acres) and East Area 2 (44 acres) located in Santa Paula. The East Area 1 property was entitled for development in 2006. This is a major accomplishment considering the strict zoning laws which normally prevent the conversion of agricultural land to better uses. The company did an excellent job of garnering local support for the initiative, and voters approved the measure by an overwhelming 80% majority. This makes Limoneira the only company currently approved for a major real estate development in the area. The development of East Area 1 is expected to be completed in a series of phases over a 20-year period.

Limoneira also owns other quality properties including a partial interest in Windfall farms, which is a 720 acre horse property  in Paso Robles. The company has invested over $25 million in capital improvements and plans to subdivide the property into 10 acre lots in 2012. While this is an excellent property, this is a slow moving project that requires time to sell. The company is also working on developing and selling a few parcels in Santa Barbara. The company was able to get the parcels entitled for development for residential and commercial units. As with Windfall farms, this will also take time because of the problems in the housing market but should move quickly when the market improves. The company has partnered with Bellagio Builders to construct two luxury spec homes in Paradise Valley, AZ. The company began this project at the top of the real estate market in 2007, is having problems selling the homes, and is currently leasing them out. Paradise Valley is an exclusive address and has held up better than other parts of Arizona in the real estate market. The company should be able to recoup its investment in time.

Limoneira also owns a few other real estate properties including workforce housing for their employees. These consist of small bungalow style units and apartment complexes.

Along with prime California real estate, Limoneira also owns significant water rights and interests in mutual water companies. The majority were acquired a long time ago and are thus valued at cost on the balance sheet ($1.2 million). But the fair market value of these water rights is much higher because it is such a precious commodity in California. From what I have been able to gather, the company has rights to approximately 15 million acre feet of water in the Santa Paula and Filmore Basins. These are important strategic assets and are worth a lot of money ($100's of millions at a minimum) to future developers or cities. The value of the company's shares in mutual water companies is uncertain, but I have read that they are worth approx. $100 million.

Management

Overall, I believe management is competent at Limoneira and is acting in shareholders' best interests. I give them credit for organizing the East Area 1 project, which took many years and required the company to work with the local community very carefully. I am also pleased that management finally decided to list on the NASDAQ even if it required them to implement the onerous Sarbanes-Oxly regulations. This move will help the company achieve a higher stock multiple compared to remaining on the pink sheets.

I have only two things against management. The first is regarding stock options. While not terrible compared to other companies, I would prefer if management used their salaries to purchase stock rather than diluting shareholders through stock options. The second reservation I have concerns a few peculiar business endeavors that the company strayed into previously including Movin' Mocha--a chain of coffee houses in Fresno, CA. Fortunately, the company has discontinued this money losing business. I hope that the company will stick to its area of expertise and focus on monetizing the company's real estate assets.

Financials

It is very easy to pass over Limoneira's balance sheet without seeing the real value of the company's assets. The company has been around since 1893, so the majority of the company's assets is valued at almost nothing on the balance sheet.

One other concern is the company's rather large amount of long-term debt at $69.2 million. This company has used debt to finance some of their real estate projects. The debt will be reduced when they sell some of their slow moving real estate. The good thing is that all of the debt is not due until 2013 and is structured at very low rates. The only thing I do not like is that all of the debt is variable rather than fixed so they are exposed to rising rates, but this is a small concern.

What I like regarding the company's financial position is that it can use the cash flow from agricultural operations to help finance its real estate projects. On average, the company will have $10-14 million in cash flow, which along with some debt, allows the company to fully fund its operations. I do not expect the company to have to raise capital through dilutive equity offerings.

Major Owners

Limoneira is a controlled company in the sense that the founders' families currently control 80% of the common stock. This certainly has its drawbacks as I have seen many family run companies systematically loot shareholders. In the case of Limoneira, I have not seen any egregious outrages which destroyed or wasted large amounts of company resources. However, there was one company action that I take issue with, and that is its "investment" in Charlie Kimball's auto racing career. Charlie Kimball is the son of the Limoneira's director Gordon Kimball who decided that the company should invest $500,000 to further his son's racing career. This smells of nepotism and misappropriation of company assets but is not large enough to merit much concern. Unfortunately, I have seen much worse in corporate America in many large companies.  As far as I can see, there are no other corrupt related party transactions at the company.

The only other major investor is Calavo Growers which owns 15% of the stock. A few years ago, the two companies agreed on a partnership which allowed Calavo to package, market, and sell Limoneira's crops. To consummate the agreement, both companies agreed to purchase stakes in each other with Limoneira purchasing 1,0000,000 shares of Calavo. So far, the investment has been sound,  and they have already realized a gain from selling 335,000 shares in 2009.

Opinion and Summary

Limoneira is a promising investment that remains under the radar of Wall Street and institutional investors. The company's excellent assets have been largely ignored and mispriced by the market. But I expect this to change as the company officially has listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange, which should bring it more exposure. It should be pointed out that this is not a get rick quick type situation but rather a long-term investment which will reward shareholders. The majority of the company's assets need to be developed over a period of years before shareholders  realize the company's full value. However, I decided to purchase shares now because I believe that now that the company lists on the NASDAQ, it will eventually get a higher valuation than it did on the pink sheets.

Full Disclosure

20% of my portfolio is invested in Limoneira (I know it is a large stake, but I am fine with that). My cost basis is around $12.40.

 Disclaimer

I am not an investment advisor and nothing on this site should be interpreted as investment advice. Please consult with your own financial advisor before investing in the stock market or any financial asset.
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Market Thoughts 4.8.2010

Markets briefly took notice of the crisis in Greece but quickly ignored it sending indices higher by approx 0.3% to close the day. Gold continued to impress today climbing to over 1,150 an ounce. This is an important development for gold because it is no longer seen as simply an anti-dollar trade but more importantly a true safe haven trade. Oil closed fractionally down for the day at $85.49 and my troubled friend natural gas fell again to $3.92.

All I can say is markets remain well bid with plenty of people desperately waiting for a temporary dip in stock prices. Every intraday decline is vigorously bought even though volume has remained extremely light. Obviously there are not too many sellers at this point. However I still expect a 7-10% correction (particularly in commodities and related stocks). Overall stocks are not really cheap or really expensive and you have to do alot of research to find value. Right now I am developing a list of 20 junior miners I like. This sector has been decimated between 2007-2010 even with the 70% rally in markets. Most of them remain 70-90% below their highs. I will publish the list in the next few days.

Black Swan Insights
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