Market Thoughts 4.8.2010

Markets briefly took notice of the crisis in Greece but quickly ignored it sending indices higher by approx 0.3% to close the day. Gold continued to impress today climbing to over 1,150 an ounce. This is an important development for gold because it is no longer seen as simply an anti-dollar trade but more importantly a true safe haven trade. Oil closed fractionally down for the day at $85.49 and my troubled friend natural gas fell again to $3.92.

All I can say is markets remain well bid with plenty of people desperately waiting for a temporary dip in stock prices. Every intraday decline is vigorously bought even though volume has remained extremely light. Obviously there are not too many sellers at this point. However I still expect a 7-10% correction (particularly in commodities and related stocks). Overall stocks are not really cheap or really expensive and you have to do alot of research to find value. Right now I am developing a list of 20 junior miners I like. This sector has been decimated between 2007-2010 even with the 70% rally in markets. Most of them remain 70-90% below their highs. I will publish the list in the next few days.

Black Swan Insights

Words of Wisdom from Leonardo da Vinci

1. I have been impressed with the urgency of doing. Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Being willing is not enough; we must do.

2.Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.

3.Life well spent is long.

4.Life is pretty simple: You do some stuff. Most fails. Some works. You do more of what works. If it works big, others quickly copy it. Then you do something else. The trick is the doing something else.

5. Marriage is like putting your hand into a bag of snakes in the hope of pulling out an eel.

Market Thoughts 4.8.2010

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