Market Thoughts 4.19.2010

Asian and European markets fell quite hard (over 1%) overnight but that meant little for US investors who in normal Pavlovian fashion bought the correction (defined as 1.5% drop in the market). All Us indices except for the Nasdaq closed higher by about .5%. However commodities got knocked with oil closing lower by $1.55 to 81.69 and copper ending fractionally lower. Its days like today when you feel the markets are being rigged. Unusually large block trades in SPY and S&p 500 futures jams the market higher on no news is always suspicious.

Even though the market was higher and I am mainly short the market, today was a good day. My oil short is finally getting back to even and my puts in OI are looking up. I am also short AUD/JPY at 86.88 which has been working. I am still short and have not covered any positions. I still think we are going to have a 10% correction in US markets and preparing accordingly. I think today's action was simply idiot dip buyers who desperately want in the market and will view any dip as an excellent buying opportunity. These people will get steamrolled during the real market correction.

Black Swan Insights

Words of Wisdom from Leonardo da Vinci

1. I have been impressed with the urgency of doing. Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Being willing is not enough; we must do.

2.Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.

3.Life well spent is long.

4.Life is pretty simple: You do some stuff. Most fails. Some works. You do more of what works. If it works big, others quickly copy it. Then you do something else. The trick is the doing something else.

5. Marriage is like putting your hand into a bag of snakes in the hope of pulling out an eel.

Market Thoughts 4.19.2010

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