The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor--Jesse Livermore
US Economy Expected to Grow Only 1.5% Per Year For The Next Decade
Delusional MIT Economist Wants The Fed To Helicopter Drop Money
Quantitative easing, when directed to Treasuries, adds a little bit of good to the mix by lowering the cost of funding public debt, and it also helps a little bit with the long-run cost of capital for the private sector. But these are second-order effects; the Treasury still increases public debt at a fast pace, and a slightly lower cost of capital doesn’t much help the private sector if aggregate demand is not there to buy the goods in the first place.
Instead, what we need is a fiscal expansion (e.g. a temporary and large cut of sales taxes) that does not raise public debt in equal amount. This can be done with a “helicopter drop” targeted at the Treasury. That is, a monetary gift from the Fed to the Treasury.
Delusional MIT Economist Wants The Fed To Helicopter Drop Money
JP Morgan Says Not To Worry About Surging Bond Prices
Here is the full report from JP Morgan:
JP Morgan Says Not To Worry About Surging Bond Prices
Eurozone GDP Growth Lags in August---Recession Lurks
In August €-coin fell slightly, from 0.40% in July to 0.37%. The value of the indicator in this quarter indicates a slackening of the recovery compared with the previous three months.
The yield curve and the course of industrial production in the main euro-area countries held back the indicator, which was nevertheless sustained by the favourable results of business and consumer surveys.
While we in the US are debating the chances of a double-dip, the EU already seems to already have arrived there with the debt crisis taking a heavy toll on the EU economy (especially the PIIGS). The only positive factor is that a weaker euro led to an increase in exports. However, this does not help the weaker countries like Greece, Spain, and Portugal because they lack a strong export industry. About the only hope for these debt plagued countries is for them to somehow increase exports, which will help restructure their balance of payments. There are only a few ways of rapidly increasing exports: currency devaluation or internal devaluation. A lower currency is not likely because the ECB controls monetary policy for the euro. This means that the only alternative for the PIIGS is an internal devaluation to help reduce costs and make goods and services more competitive in the export market. This option has already been implemented by some Eastern European countries like Latvia and Estonia. They reduced wages 20-35% across the board to regain competitiveness. It came at a great cost to the general population as poverty increased greatly, but, of course, these folks are used to suffering. Early indicators seem to suggest that this internal devaluation has worked despite the high social costs. The problem for the PIIGS is that their populations are less receptive to severe wage cuts, reduced benefits, and higher taxes.
Black Swan Insights
Eurozone GDP Growth Lags in August---Recession Lurks
In Gold Emerging Countries Trust
Black Swan Insights
XMQYPBXMMGYG
In Gold Emerging Countries Trust
AAII Investor Sentiment Plummets--Contrary Buy Signal?
The chart below shows how sentiment has changed over the last 3 months:
Below is a 2 year chart of the AAII Sentiment Survey. You will notice that major bottoms usually coincide with a AAII bearishness number north of 50%.
Black Swan Insights
AAII Investor Sentiment Plummets--Contrary Buy Signal?
Anthony Ward's Sweet Tooth Has Cost Him $230 Million
From Dow Jones:
Anthony Ward's Sweet Tooth Has Cost Him $230 Million
The "Goldman Sachs Conspiracy"---A Chinese Bestseller
The nearly 300-page, highly dramatized account covers much of the same ground as a widely cited piece by Matt Taibbi last year in the Rolling Stone magazine that portrayed the Wall Street institution as a ''a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.''
Li's book takes ample license in its attacks on Goldman Sachs. The company's ultimate goal, he says in the first chapter, is to ''kill China.''
''Like a fox chewing a bone, Goldman Sachs knows the rules of the game and when to go for your neck,'' it says.
With the ''cruel character of a Manchurian tiger, the group creeps around the world, like a veteran hunter stalking its prey, when it smells blood it pounces!'' the chapter says.
Li, in an online chat, said the book was no exaggeration.
''The real financial battle is even more dramatic than my book, according to my knowledge of the markets,'' he said. ''Goldman Sachs is the hand behind the financial crisis, maybe even its cause.'' He soon plans to publish a third book about the company.
The "Goldman Sachs Conspiracy"---A Chinese Bestseller
Bernanke Explains How To Escape The "Liquidity Trap"
Here are some of his suggestions to the BOJ:
Bernanke Explains How To Escape The "Liquidity Trap"
Insider Trading Alive and Well
The Securities and Exchange Commission has charged two residents of Madrid, Spain with insider trading and obtained an emergency court order to freeze their assets after they made nearly $1.1 million in illegal profits by trading in advance of last week's public announcement of a multi-billion dollar cash tender offer by BHP Billiton Plc to acquire Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc.I wish the SEC would go after bigger prizes like high-frequency trading. This is the most important issue considering it was rogue bots who caused the May 6th crash. But I guess the SEC has more important things to do such as watching porn.
The SEC alleges that Juan Jose Fernandez Garcia and Luis Martin Caro Sanchez purchased - on the basis of material, non-public information about the impending tender offer - hundreds of "out-of-the-money" call option contracts for stock in Potash in the days leading up to the public announcement of BHP's bid on August 17. Garcia is the head of a research arm at Banco Santander, S.A. - a Spanish banking group advising BHP on its bid. Garcia and Sanchez jointly spent a little more than $61,000 to purchase the contracts in U.S. brokerage accounts. Immediately after BHP's offer was announced publicly on August 17, Garcia and Sanchez sold all of their options for illicit profits of nearly $1.1 million.
Black Swan Insights
Insider Trading Alive and Well
LMAO-- China's Ten Day Traffic Jam Could Last Until Mid-Septemeber
A 100-kilometer traffic jam near the Chinese capital that officials say could last until mid-September has become a symbol of the dark side of China's love affair with the automobile. Officials say traffic has been snarled along the outskirts of Beijing and is stretching toward the border of Inner Mongolia ever since roadwork on the Beijing-Tibet Highway started Aug. 13. The following week, parts of a major road circling Beijing were closed, further tightening overburdened roadways.So much for Chinese efficiency.
As the jam on the highway, also known as National Highway 110, passed the 10-day mark Tuesday, local authorities dispatched hundreds of police to keep order and to reroute cars and trucks carrying essential supplies, such as food or flammables, around the main bottleneck. There, vehicles were inching along little more than a third of a mile a day. Zhang Minghai, director of Zhangjiakou city's Traffic Management Bureau general office, said in a telephone interview he didn't expect the situation to return to normal until around Sept. 17 when road construction is scheduled to be finished and traffic lanes will open up.
Villagers along Highway 110 took advantage of the jam, selling drivers packets of instant noodles from roadside stands and, when traffic was at a standstill, moving between trucks and cars to hawk their wares.
LMAO-- China's Ten Day Traffic Jam Could Last Until Mid-Septemeber
Yen Surges As BOJ Desperately Tries To Debase Currency
Three month chart of Yen Futures
Black Swan Insights
Yen Surges As BOJ Desperately Tries To Debase Currency
Greek Austerity Measures Not Working--Tax Hikes Fail
As the government and opposition argued about whether or not new measures are on the cards, Finance Ministry figures indicated that an original austerity program of tax hikes and salary cuts had failed to bring in the projected revenue. An increase in the tax on tobacco, for example, brought in an additional 250 million euros in the first six months of the year, far below the target of 1.13 billion euros. Overall increases in the tax on tobacco, fuel and alcohol are believed to have failed to hit the target due to the parallel wage cuts, which have led to a plunge in consumer spending. Experts estimate that losses to state revenue because of the slump in consumer spending will amount to 2 billion euros by the end of the year.This is an unwelcome development for the EU bureaucrats who recently announced that Greece was making excellent progress implementing financial reforms. No wonder Greece 5-Year CDS is trading at 870 bps. Greece is doomed, and everyone knows it. The only question is when it will all come crashing down. According to Intrade there is approx. 50% chance of a European country leaving the Euro by Dec 31, 2014.
Black Swan Insights
Greek Austerity Measures Not Working--Tax Hikes Fail
Federal Reserve Loses Bid To Keep Bank Bailout Secret
Hats off to Bloomberg for taking legal action against the Fed.
Black Swan Insights
Federal Reserve Loses Bid To Keep Bank Bailout Secret
No Bond Bubble--- Just Another Fed Machination
No Bond Bubble--- Just Another Fed Machination
Weekend Reads and Audio
2. The Death of Quant Funds
3. Stock Market is Still for Suckers
4. King World News Interview-- John Williams of ShadowStats
5. Goldseek Radio--Ron Paul and Harry Dent
6. Peak Oil Theory Has Peaked
7. The Stealth Debt Restructuring: Inflation
8. Emerging Markets are Still Looking Good--Deutsche Bank
Posting will be lite over the weekend. I am recovering from food poisoning courtesy of the Getty Villa Restaurant. Don't get the triple cheese pizza and cheese platter!!!
Black Swan Insights
Weekend Reads and Audio
Fed President Bullard Really Wants To Steal Your Money Through Inflation
Part of the goal here is you are trying to defend the inflation target from the low side. Monetizing debt is widely recognized to be inflationary. It will be both perceived as inflationary and it actually will be. You would push core inflation higher, toward target. Of course you don’t want to overdo this and create a lot of inflation down the line. But we are on the low side of the inflation target at this point so the idea is to move up toward the target.
If I remember right, the Fed's mandate is full employment and price stability. Having 2% inflation means that prices double every 36 years. Is this price stability? I don't think so. What I don't understand is why no one seems to object to the Fed's intention to destroy the dollar. No economist I have ever talked to has ever been against inflation. They all like the idea of 2-3% inflation because they incorrectly believe that it stimulates spending as people buy stuff before the price goes up. They fear that 0% inflation or (gasp) deflation would cause a depression as people and businesses forgo spending, waiting for lower prices. Of course, this is an absurd notion. The real reason the Fed and the government want inflation is because it reduces the real value of the government's national debt. It it just a coincidence that inflation is usually 3%, and the yearly budget deficit is around 3%, too. Bernanke in his deflation speech, confirmed that the government has a strong incentive to create inflation. It is unfortunate that the American people do not understand this concept. Even Lenin understood this and noted that the:
best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security but [also] at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth.It is sad that a nefarious character like Lenin had a better understanding of economics than most capitalist economists. Whatever your views about the Fed, you have to admit that they have done a terrific job of reducing the dollar's value by 96% since 1913.
Black Swan Insights
Fed President Bullard Really Wants To Steal Your Money Through Inflation
Is The Fed Really Out of Bullets?
I have outlined a few possible tools still available to the Fed:
Is The Fed Really Out of Bullets?
Charting The Supposed Economic Recovery
Charting The Supposed Economic Recovery
How Merrill Lynch Hid $31 billion In Toxic Assets Off Balance Sheet
How Merrill Lynch Hid $31 billion In Toxic Assets Off Balance Sheet
Irish 5 Yr CDS On The Rise
Entity Name 5 Yr Mid Change (%) Change (bps) CPD (%)
Italy 197.67 +9.66 +17.41 15.75
Ireland 303.23 +6.80 +19.30 22.80
Germany 47.34 +5.36 +2.41 4.04
Greece 847.95 +3.51 +28.79 51.00
Source: CMA Datavision
Black Swan Insights
Irish 5 Yr CDS On The Rise
Financial Globalization Has Rendered The System Increasingly Susceptible To Collapse
Financial Globalization Has Rendered The System Increasingly Susceptible To Collapse
Krugman Gets It Wrong On Social Security--Again
About that math: Legally, Social Security has its own, dedicated funding, via the payroll tax (“FICA” on your pay statement). But it’s also part of the broader federal budget. This dual accounting means that there are two ways Social Security could face financial problems. First, that dedicated funding could prove inadequate, forcing the program either to cut benefits or to turn to Congress for aid. Second, Social Security costs could prove unsupportable for the federal budget as a whole.I am impressed with the arrogance of this economist who has been wrong time after time. Just for readers to remember, this simpleton called for the Fed to create a housing bubble in 2002 to "stimulate" the economy. What is particularly scary is that the ruling class in Washington and at the Fed listens to this bedlamite. Anyway, Krugman again makes numerous mistakes when he discusses the alleged solvency of Social Security. He asserts that because Social Security ran surpluses for 25 years, it has credit in a special account called the trust fund. This is not correct. While it is true that Social Security did run surpluses, the problem is that the government already has spent them. In return, Social Security was given nothing more than an accounting entry confirming the fact. The truth of the matter is that all Social Security has is paper IOUs from a bankrupt and heavily indebted federal government, which has been forced to print money to pay its bills. If the government was to make good on these IOUs they would have to either borrow more money, raise taxes, cut spending, or print money. Krugman would be correct if the government had not stolen the Social Security's surplus for the past 25 years and used it to fund normal government spending. But they have spent the surplus, and so the idea of a trust fund with hundreds of billions stashed a away for a rainy day is a lie. If Social Security is to be funded after it slips into perpetual deficit, it will come from directly from the government and not from people paying into Social Security.
But neither of these potential problems is a clear and present danger. Social Security has been running surpluses for the last quarter-century, banking those surpluses in a special account, the so-called trust fund. The program won’t have to turn to Congress for help or cut benefits until or unless the trust fund is exhausted, which the program’s actuaries don’t expect to happen until 2037 — and there’s a significant chance, according to their estimates, that that day will never come.
Krugman Gets It Wrong On Social Security--Again
There Is No Deflation
One final note about deflation: The consumer price index was a mere 18 in 1945 but was 172 at the start of this century. Today, despite our most recent crisis, the CPI is over 219. Not once during more than half a century has the index systematically declined. I find no evidence that deflation is the most serious threat to the recovery today.People commonly mistake asset price deflation with general price deflation. Asset price deflation is part of the credit cycle. When a credit bubble bursts (e.g. housing market), prices have to fall back to a proper clearing level set by the market. However, there is a certain group of economists, who believe that the Federal Reserve should never let this process occur. Instead they postulate that the Fed should debase the dollar through inflation, which increases the nominal price of assets. They argue that the "deflationary risk" of falling prices is to great and that the Fed should do everything in their power to prevent it. This is why the Fed will not allow home prices to fall to their natural level. One other aspect of Hoenig's speech I found noteworthy was his discussion on negative real interest rates and why it it destructive to the economy. He mentioned that the Fed made the mistake in 2003-2004 of keeping interest rates artificially low for too long, which led to a speculative housing bubble. What I find unbelievable is that the Federal Reserve refuses to learn from their own mistakes. They admit that low interest rates create dangerous price bubbles, but at the same time have lowered interest rates to 0%. They have kept rates at all time lows for over a year even though they know this is going to cause unintended problems in the future. What the hell are they thinking at the Fed?
The way I see it the goal of 0% interest rates is to create another asset bubble to bail out the economy. The Fed may claim that this is not their intention, but actions speak louder than words. They understand that the real economy has been permanently disabled thanks to the financial crisis and housing bubble. Under their line of reasoning the only thing that can cause a temporary recovery in the economy would be another credit bubble,which is bigger than the housing bubble. It remains to be seen whether they can accomplish this because the demand for credit throughout society (businesses, consumers, etc) is declining at a rapid rate. Another problem is that the banking system is insolvent which means banks are not going to be extending credit and loans like they did before. We know that 0% interests rates encourage speculation as people look for alternatives to 0%. However, most Americans have already given up on stocks and are piling into bonds despite the threat of inflation and low returns on 10 year Treasuries. According to traditional economic thinking this is the exact opposite of what you would expect rational people to do. They should be moving their assets into riskier investments rather than safer ones. If these trends continue expect more economic stagflation as the economy limps along and high commodity prices ensure inflation. It remains to be seen whether the Fed will get their wish of another credit bubble.
Black Swan Insights
There Is No Deflation
IMF Calls for A New Global Currency
A more ambitious reform option would be to build on the previous ideas and develop, over time, a global currency. Called, for example, bancor in honor of Keynes, such a currency could be used as a medium of exchange—an “outside money” in contrast to the SDR which remains an “inside money”.
One option is for bancor to be adopted by fiat as a common currency (like the euro was), an approach that would result immediately in widespread use and eliminate exchange rate volatility among adopters (comparable, for instance, to Cooper 1984, 2006 and the Economist, 1988). A somewhat less ambitious (and more realistic) option would be for bancor to circulate alongside national currencies, though it would need to be adopted by fiat by at least some (not necessarily systemic) countries in order for an exchange market to develop.
IMF Calls for A New Global Currency
US Economic Outlook--3 Possible Scenarios
US Economic Outlook--3 Possible Scenarios
Anthony Ward's Cocoa Speculation May Be In Trouble
Anthony Ward's Cocoa Speculation May Be In Trouble
Small Business Optimism Declines--Great Recession Continues For The Real Economy
The Index of Small Business Optimism lost 0.9 points in July and reached 88.1 following a sharp decline in June. The Index has been below 93 every month since January 2008 (31 months), and below 90 for 24 of those months, all readings typical of a weak or recession-mired economy. Ninety percent of the decline this month resulted from deterioration in the outlook for business conditions in the next six months.
Small Business Optimism Declines--Great Recession Continues For The Real Economy
Federal Reserve Announces QE "Lite"
To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve's holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities. The Committee will continue to roll over the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities as they mature.This is an important turn of events because it means that QE (money printing) is likely permanent and the Fed is intent on monetizing debt contrary to what they say. I don't care what anyone says this action will eventually lead to high inflation. It also shows how duplicitous and deceitful the Federal Reserve really is. For the last 14 months or so they have argued that their actions were only to stimulate the economy by injecting money temporarily. When the economy showed sings of stabilization they would reduce the balance sheet accordingly. But today's actions show otherwise. Its interesting because QE 1 has largely failed as the real economy shows little signs of progress and is currently at risk of a double dip without more government stimulus.
Federal Reserve Announces QE "Lite"
European Banks Faced Funding Problems ECB Bank Lending Survey Says
For the second quarter of 2010, possibly reflecting the renewed financial market tensions following concerns about sovereign risk, banks generally reported a deterioration in their access to wholesale funding across all segments, but more intensely as regards access to short-term money markets and the markets for debt securities issuance. On balance, in the second quarter of 2010 around 30-40% of the banks surveyed (excluding those banks that replied “not applicable”) reported deteriorated access to money markets and around 40-50% of the banks reported deteriorated access to debt securities markets. In addition, true-sale securitisation of corporate loans and loans for house purchase also became somewhat more difficult in the second quarter of 2010. On balance, between 20% and 30% of the banks for which this business is relevant (around 60% of the sample group) reported deteriorated access to securitisation of respectively corporate loans and mortgage loans. Moreover, according to 37% of the banks for which this business is relevant (which is the case for 40% of the sample group), synthetic securitisation, i.e. the ability to transfer credit risk off balance sheet, deteriorated.It is unclear whether credit conditions have improved very much since the bank stress tests. While bank CDS spreads have tightened, Eurlibor has steadily risen which gives you a mixed message. The real problem for the European banks is their dependence on wholesale funding as opposed to more stable funding sources such as bank deposits.
Black Swan Insights
European Banks Faced Funding Problems ECB Bank Lending Survey Says
Weekend Reads
1. Yuan As A Reserve Currency--Deutsche Bank
2. Latin America-Not just a commodity play---JP Morgan
3. Telling Swiss secrets: A banker's betrayal--Global Post
4. No Wheat Shortage--Global Stocks Adequate---Tell that to the speculators bidding up wheat
5. Goldman Sachs Estimates Derivatives May Provide 35% of Revenue--BusinessWeek
Have a good weekend.
Black Swan Insights
Weekend Reads
How Can There Be A Recovery Without Jobs?
How Can There Be A Recovery Without Jobs?
"Nothing Down" Makes a Comeback: So Much For Increased Lending Standards
Buyer did not make a down payment 14%
Buyer made a down payment of 1% to 2% 3%
Buyer made a down payment of 3% to 6% 38%
Buyer made a down payment of 7% to 10% 9%
Buyer made a down payment of 11% to 20% 21%
Buyer made a down payment of 21% to 99% 16%
That's right :14% of home buyers purchased a home without a down payment (and you thought banks had raised their lending standards). More importantly, 55% of home buyers put less than 7% down. The reason there is a large number in the 3-6% area is because FHA usually requires a 3% down payment. You would have thought that banks and mortgage lenders would have learned by now that it is important for home buyers to put up at least 10% down. This way they have some skin in the game and are less likely to default on a loan. Evidently, financial institutions have learned nothing from the whole real estate market collapse and subsequent financial crisis. I tried to confirm these results from a realtor I know in the Chatsworth, California area, and was told that it is possible to purchase a home without a down payment, but you have to have good credit. In my opinion, these kind of stats how vulnerable the US housing market is to any further decline in home prices. How many home buyers in the no down payment category are willing to endure negative equity? My guess is not many, and the same can be said for people in the 3-6% category. Talk about weak hands! These people will simply walk away and contribute to the bloated housing inventory.
Black Swan Insights
"Nothing Down" Makes a Comeback: So Much For Increased Lending Standards
Oil Prospects In Somalia
Oil Prospects In Somalia
How A Mistake By The Supreme Court Allowed Fiat Money In the US
Here is an excerpt from the article:
How A Mistake By The Supreme Court Allowed Fiat Money In the US
So You Wanna Predict A Banking Crisis?
So You Wanna Predict A Banking Crisis?
Quantitative Easing Propaganda From the Bank Of England
Quantitative Easing Propaganda From the Bank Of England
Thoughts From Marc Faber--- Aug 1
1. Stock market outlook is uncertain. Faber is less confident that markets will fall to 850-900 because of the inevitable money printing (aka QE 2), which will boost asset prices. Possible trading range developing with 1040 as the bottom and 1170 as the top for the S&P 500. Even so he would be reducing equity exposure on any stock market strength.
2. Euro is likely to bounce around erratically between 1.25 and 1.35. Faber hates the dollar and euro but likes undervalued Asian currencies.
3. If you have to buy stocks make it Asian equities and REIT's in Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia. They have high yields and are attractive compared to 3% 10 year treasuries. Asian economies will continue to grow at a healthy clip even with weakness in the US and Europe, which makes them good investments.
4. China's economy will continue to do grow even if the property market declines sharply. The growing Chinese middle class will support increased domestic consumption. Wages in China have gone up giving hundreds of millions of people increased purchasing power.
5. US municipal debt will likely become a major problem in the future. As of the 1st quarter of 2010 there is an estimated $2.8 trillion in outstanding municipal debt, which can never be repaid and will require a federal bailout. Another issue is state and local government pension plans, which are severely underfunded.
6. Gold is a buy after its seasonal bottom usually in September. Long term trend is up and as long as Bernanke is Fed Chairman, gold will do well.
7. Likes agricultural commodities and related stocks (but says avoid commodity ETF's because of the roll). In particular Faber likes wheat, rice, and soybeans. He also likes the fertilizer and seed stocks.
8. Faber expects rising agricultural prices will lead to civil unrest and violence in some countries.
Black Swan Insights
Thoughts From Marc Faber--- Aug 1
Key Events For The Week
Monday Aug 2
1. ISM Manufacturing (July)
2. Construction Spending
3. Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision * (always important to the carry traders)
Tuesday Aug 3
Key Events For The Week