Showing posts with label Market Crash. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Market Crash. Show all posts

Financial Globalization Has Rendered The System Increasingly Susceptible To Collapse

   A published report by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority titled "Analyzing Interconnectivity Among Economies" found that the trend of financial globalization has weakened the world economy by making it vulnerable to systemic collapse resulting from external shocks. The report goes on to state that individual countries have lost control over their own economic security as a result of this financial interconnectivity, creating policy problems for government leaders and central bankers. One of the major findings of the report was that "economies register a significantly higher sovereign risk once the condition that another economy is in distress is imposed." The problem is that traditional CDS pricing does not correctly price this risk, leaving market participants exposed to billions in potential losses. The threat becomes more severe if systemically important institutions like money center banks are affected by this mispricing of risk because of the domino effect during financial crises.
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So You Wanna Predict A Banking Crisis?

   According to a recently released working paper from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (Central Bank), the key to predicting an impending banking crisis before it occurs is to watch the spread between LIBOR and OIS (Overnight Index Swap) rates. During normal times, the spread between the two rates is low, representing a healthy and liquid market. But during times of severe market dislocations, the spread starts to widen, which indicates liquidity problems in the interbank funding markets. The report goes on to say that if you had followed this indicator during the Fall of 2008, you would have been alerted to the market collapse and credit freeze a few days before they actually occurred. To be precise, the indicator flashed a warning signal on September 18th 2008, just days after Lehman's bankruptcy. At the time the market had not fully realized the dire consequenes. While the report mainly discusses how this is a useful tool for policy makers to anticipate and prepare for a banking crisis, I am more interested in this indicator as a trading tool. From the chart below you will see that the trigger for a banking crisis is when the spread is over 125 bps.
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