Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts

Fed Chair Janet Yellen on monetary policy: "the best way to build credibility was to lie"



Not new to BSI readers, but Janet Yellen the new head of the Fed admits that the best way to build credibility is to lie to the idiot public. At least she is honest about it, unlike Banana Ben Bernanke. 





From a previous black swan post:

In fact, San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen mentioned in a speech that central bankers openly lie as a matter of policy. She recounts her discussions with two international central bankers at her first Jackson Hole meeting:
Two of the leading central bankers in the world took me aside to help educate me about how to conduct myself so I would be an upstanding central bank citizen. They offered me the very same advice: Good central bankers never admit they pursue stabilization policy. Such an admission would reduce the confidence of the public in  your commitment to price stability and therefore undermine your credibility and effectiveness as a monetary policymaker. I responded that I appreciated the advice, especially from such distinguished central bankers, but that it left me a bit confused. They seemed to be telling me that the best way to build credibility was to lie, specifically about how I understood the objectives and how I intended to conduct monetary policy.


Am I the only one who wishes we had a more attractive Fed Chairwoman? I mean if we are going to select a woman for the most powerful position in the country, Obama could have done much better. Admit it--you would feel much better being lied to by an attractive woman like this below, compared to grandma Yellen.

On a personal note--women in business suits (with stockings) are incredibly sexy. You mind explodes with all of the possibilities--like ripping of her stockings, what she would look like in various positions on my desk, etc. But I digress.



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Charting The Supposed Economic Recovery

   If you want a clear visualization of how weak the current recovery is compared to the post-world war II average here are 8 charts to prove it. Make sure to look at the last chart which compares the current decline in home prices to what happened during the great depression--hint the current decline is much worse.



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How Merrill Lynch Hid $31 billion In Toxic Assets Off Balance Sheet

   The New York Times has a fascinating article detailing how Merrill Lynch was able to hide $31 billion in toxic CDO assets off balance sheet beginning in early 2006. During the housing bubble of 2002-2007 Merrill made big money packaging mortgages and selling CDO's to investors. If the firm was unable to sell certain tranches of a CDO they would normally go to AIG to buy some credit protection, but in early 2006 AIG stopped selling credit protection on risky assets backed by mortgages. This left Merrill with a serious problem and left them exposed to billions in possible losses. To solve the problem, Merrill created a special purpose vehicle called Pyxis, which issued short term debt backed by the cash flow from the CDO's. But as the New York Times points out there was a catch:
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There Is No Deflation

   With the recent weakness in the economy many economists have warned that the US faces a deflationary future. Their solution is to print money to counter any deflationary forces. As readers will know, I strongly disagree with this idea because there is no deflation. I am not going to get into the inflation/deflation debate because it is not productive and both sides remain obstinate. However I will note that Fed President Hoenig made a speech yesterday which noted:
One final note about deflation: The consumer price index was a mere 18 in 1945 but was 172 at the start of this century. Today, despite our most recent crisis, the CPI is over 219. Not once during more than half a century has the index systematically declined. I find no evidence that deflation is the most serious threat to the recovery today.
   People commonly mistake asset price deflation with general price deflation. Asset price deflation is part of the credit cycle. When a credit bubble bursts (e.g. housing market), prices have to fall back to a proper clearing level set by the market. However, there is a certain group of economists, who believe that the Federal Reserve should never let this process occur. Instead they postulate that the Fed should debase the dollar through inflation, which increases the nominal price of assets. They argue that the "deflationary risk" of falling prices is to great and that the Fed should do everything in their power to prevent it. This is why the Fed will not allow home prices to fall to their natural level.  One other aspect of Hoenig's speech I found noteworthy was his discussion on negative real interest rates and why it it destructive to the economy. He mentioned that the Fed made the mistake in 2003-2004 of keeping interest rates artificially low for too long, which led to a speculative housing bubble. What I find unbelievable is that the Federal Reserve refuses to learn from their own mistakes. They admit that low interest rates create dangerous price bubbles, but at the same time have lowered interest rates to 0%. They have kept rates at all time lows for over a year even though they know this is going to cause unintended problems in the future. What the hell are they thinking at the Fed?
  
    The way I see it the goal of 0% interest rates is to create another asset bubble to bail out the economy. The Fed may claim that this is not their intention, but actions speak louder than words. They understand that the real economy has been permanently disabled thanks to the financial crisis and housing bubble. Under their line of reasoning the only thing that can cause a temporary recovery in the economy would be another credit bubble,which is bigger than the housing bubble. It remains to be seen whether they can accomplish this because the demand for credit throughout society (businesses, consumers, etc) is declining at a rapid rate. Another problem is that the banking system is insolvent which means banks are not going to be extending credit and loans like they did before. We know that 0% interests rates encourage speculation as people look for alternatives to 0%. However, most Americans have already given up on stocks and are piling into bonds despite the threat of inflation and low returns on 10 year Treasuries. According to traditional economic thinking this is the exact opposite of what you would expect rational people to do. They should be moving their assets into riskier investments rather than safer ones. If these trends continue expect more economic stagflation as the economy limps along and high commodity prices ensure inflation. It remains to be seen whether the Fed will get their wish of another credit bubble.

Black Swan Insights  
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Highlights from the Non-Farm Payrolls

Well the number came in below expectations at +162,000 for March. The real highlights were the +48,000 census workers hired (temporary jobs), +81,000 inferred by the Birth/Death model (all they do is guess), and a weather adjustment of +100,000. I would strip out the census hiring and the B/D model because these do not give you a good indication of how the real economy is doing. When you do this you get +33,000 jobs. Even this is a little suspect considering how the BLS calculated the Feb. weather adjustment into the numbers. Overall, the job market remains terribly weak but is slowly recovering. An interesting note--the US has to create 200,000 jobs per month just to keep up with the growth in the population. So in order to see a sustained drop in unemployment, you would need to have over 200,000 jobs created per month. We are a long way from that.


Black Swan Insights
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Preview of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls

Wall Street is currently expecting payrolls to increase by 190,000 for the month of March. Goldman Sachs is slightly more optimistic with an estimate of 200,000(revised down from 275,000). However this week's ADP number showed a decline of 23,000 jobs. So what is it going to be? One thing to note about the ADP number is that it only tracks private payrolls and does not include government hiring. The US government is expected to hire between 75,000-100,000 census jobs in March, which should provide an artificial boost. Then all of the simpletons on CNBC can finally say that the job market is recovering and now is the time to buy more stocks.

My guess for Friday's number is +50k which without census hiring would be flat to negative. Many US corporations have discovered that they do not need to rehire the people they laid off during the worst of the recession. I doubt they will be so quick to rehire them now. Corporations know that the recent boost in the economy has been due to inventory restocking and will likely wait until end-user demand appears before hiring more personnel.

Black Swan Insights
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Consumer spending rises despite lack of jobs

This is what makes analyzing the economy difficult. Today the Commerce Department announced that consumer spending rose 0.3% in February while at the same time personal incomes remained unchanged. Hats off to the brain dead American consumer who does not let recessions, depressions, 17% unemployment (U-6 number), rising energy and food prices deter them from shopping until they drop. This makes no logical sense. The only explanation I have for this is that people stop paying their mortgages and use this "extra money" to go crazy at Gucci, Saks, Tiffany's. In many cases they can spend $2000-4000 a month which would have been foolishly wasted on their underwater mortgage. I have read that you can stay in your home for up to 15 months without making a payment so it makes sense. Defaulting on your mortgage is the new economic stimulus. Only in America!!!

Black Swan Insights
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The Yen Carry Trade: Are you feeling lucky?

What if I told you there was a trade where you could earn 20-40% annually and had a high success rate. The only downside is that it occasionally collapses and completely wipes you out. Would you consider this trade? Welcome to the carry trade.

The carry trade is relatively straightforward--you purchase a high yield currency and short a low yielding currency. For example AUD/JPY. Australia has high interest rates compared to Japan. Currently Australia's interest rates are at 4.00% while in Japan is at 0.10% making for a 3.9% difference. Theoretically you could buy 100,000AUD/JPY and make an easy $3,900 or 3.9% annually. That is pretty good considering US interest rates are at 0-0.25%. Now what if I told you that if you use leverage say 10-1(forex dealers give away leverage like candy) you could earn $39,000 or 39% per annum. You are probably salivating at the opportunity right. The best part of this trade is that AUD/JPY does not even have to move up for you to make money (even though that would be nice). It could simply remain flat and you still get your 39%. This seems like free money doesn't it?


But what are the risks?

Because this is a leveraged position your greatest risk is that AUD/JPY could decline from say 83 to 74. When you are using 10-1 leverage you will lose your entire investment if AUD/JPY declines by 10% or more (unless you are willing to put up more margin). However carry trade supporters note that this only happens a few times a decade. On most days you will win and get to collect your interest. This is what makes the carry trade so desirable and dangerous. Statistically you will win but when the trade blows up, you expose yourself to huge tail risk.

The Yen can surge 10% very quickly during market crisis like the Asian financial crisis. In one famous week in October 1998 USD/JPY fell (yen surged) from 136 to 111. We also saw a dramatic rise in the yen in late 2008 with AUD/JPY falling from over 100 in July 2008 to 55 by December 2008. Anyone who was long the carry trade got destroyed.

Conclusion

Anyone contemplating the carry trade needs to be aware of the perils of such a strategy. Yes, you can make good money during normal market conditions but you always know in the back of your mind that it will eventually collapse (just ask Julian Robertson of Tiger management who lost $2 billion overnight). The only question is when and more importantly will you be able to get out. If you still think this is a great trade make sure you put on the trade during an economic expansion with low volatility. In my opinion the benefits do not outweigh the risk of 100% capital loss.

Black Swan Insights
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Market Thoughts 3/23/2010 Up, Up, and Away



All major indices were higher and recording 52-week highs. Oil and gold were higher along with the dollar index. Volume was fine but not spectacular. I am really glad the Federal Reserve outlawed down days in the market (Federal Reserve Board Directive 88907621) because it was so depressing and inconvenient for an economic rebound. I always considered the question: Can the market (tail) wag the economy (dog)? It sure looks like it can. All you need to do is engineer a stock market recovery and presto--banks can issue 100's of billions in equity. Is it really that easy?

Anyways, the only fools of the day were the shorts (sign me up) and the winners anyone who is long any asset class (except treasuries). Even the dog of the energy market natural gas was up a little (good for my position). Call me ignorant but I find this type of market difficult. I do not like markets that go straight up because I always fear the downside (that line of reasoning saved me from 2008 massacre). It is almost impossible to run a balanced trade book because you want to kill yourself for shorting anything.

The only thing I will say that might show a negative divergence in the markets is the relative weakness of some key commodities (Oil,Gold,Copper) and commodity related stocks like FCX,APA,BTU,X, etc. All of these have not made new highs along with the general markets. Does this mean anything? Normally it would but we are not in normal times. That said this market is egregiously overbought I am not establishing any new long positions. Still maintaining oil short and May puts on Owens-Illinois. But will not be including any other shorts.

Black Swan Insights
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