One of my favorite indicators is Intrade, a site which allows people to bet on future events. While the stock market is no longer a predictor of the economy, other markets like Intrade are thriving and show that not all markets are broken. So lets see what Intrade is currently forecasting:
2010 Elections
There you have it, the future according to Intrade. Personally, I have found Intrade more accurate than opinion polls so I always keep an eye on what it is predicting.
Black Swan Insights
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2010 Elections
- Republicans will take back control of the House of Representatives (90% certainty)
- There is a good chance that Republicans will gain 50 or more seats (57% chance)
- Democrats will lose seats in the Senate but will still maintain a slight majority (56.9%)
- In California Jerry Brown will be the next Governor (85% chance)
- Barbra Boxer will defeat Carly Fiorina for the Senate in California
- Rand Paul (of the Tea party) will win the Senate in Kentucky (81% chance)
- California will defeat the marijuana legalization proposition (only 36% chance of passing)
- There is a very low chance of the US/Israel attacking Iran by Dec 2011 (only 23%)
- No chance of ever catching Bin Laden by June 2011 (8% chance)--he is probably dead anyway
- Guantanamo Bay prison will still be open by the end of 2011 (6% chance of it being closed)
- The US economy will not enter a recession during 2011 (only 30% chance)
- Sarah Palin will run for President before the end of 2011 (70%)
- But she will not win the Republican nomination (only 18% chance)
- Currently Romney is the front runner for the Republican nomination (29%)
- Obama has a slight edge in 2012 against a Republican challenger (60%)
There you have it, the future according to Intrade. Personally, I have found Intrade more accurate than opinion polls so I always keep an eye on what it is predicting.
Black Swan Insights
