Showing posts with label AAII Sentiment Survey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AAII Sentiment Survey. Show all posts

AAII Investor Sentiment Soars After Market Rally

   All it took to improve investor sentiment was a few up days in the market. The weekly AAII Investor Sentiment Survey reported that bullish sentiment rose to 30.80% from 20.74%, and bearish sentiment fell

42.21% from 49.47% during the previous week. The percentage of investors who described themselves as neutral on the stock market fell to 27.00% from 29.79%, according to the poll. The data is pretty much what you expect to see after the recent market rally. Last week's 49% bearish sentiment was high, but major market bottoms usually coincide with a bearish number of around 55%. We have not yet seen that, which makes it hard to say that we made a definitive market bottom. At best, it looks like a short-term trading bottom.

Below is a 3-month chart.














2-Year Chart AAII Sentiment Survey
















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AAII Investor Sentiment Plummets--Contrary Buy Signal?

       The American Association of Individual Investors released its weekly sentiment survey which showed a large decline in investor bullishness as wild market fluctuations whipsawed investors. Bullish sentiment fell to 20.74% from 30.11%, but bearish sentiment rose 49.47% from 42.47% during the previous week. The percentage of investors who described themselves as neutral on the stock market rose to 29.79% from 27.42%, according to the poll. The historical average of investor bullishness is 39%. With invesor bullishness at 20%, this would be a contrary buy signal because retail investors are usually wrong.

The chart below shows how sentiment has changed over the last 3 months:


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


Below is a 2 year chart of the AAII Sentiment Survey. You will notice that major bottoms usually coincide with a AAII bearishness number north of 50%.

 
















Black Swan Insights
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