Marc Faber's September Outlook: The Calm Before the Storm

Marc Faber is out with the latest issue of his famous Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report which is always a must read for serious investors. Unlike most of the other talking heads, Faber has an excellent track record. He correctly predicted the top in the equity markets in Nov 2007 and caught the bottom in March 2009, making his subscribers a lot of money. Here is a summary of his September 2011 report:

1. Stocks---Faber says stocks face two potential outcomes: a brief rally to between 1250-1300 on the SP 500 before another leg down (and breaching the 1101 low) or a prolonged trading range with 1100 being the low and 1300 as resistance. Faber thinks the first outcome is more likely, but this could change depending on Fed policy (aka: money printing). Another reason for Faber's bearish posture is the unfavorable seasonality of September (worst month for stocks historically). Investors who have exposure to stocks should use any bounce to sell. If you feel compelled to own stocks, Faber recommends blue-chip stocks like Pepsi and Johnson and Johnson.

2. Gold--Extremely overbought at this level. Could fall to $1500-1600 range during the correction. Faber noted the bizarre relationship between US treasuries and gold. Concludes that the people buying gold were not worried about inflation but a collapse of the entire financial system. Gold should be viewed as more of an insurance policy rather than an inflation hedge. Long-term gold is going significantly higher. Gold stocks may be the better bet than the physical metal in the short-term as they play catch up.

3. US Treasuries--After a huge, fear-inspired rally, US treasuries are extremely vulnerable to a correction. Faber notes that the Daily Sentiment Index is around 98%, indicating a possible top. Furthermore, the "dumb money," a.k.a. the retail crowd, is very bullish judging by their positioning in the Rydex inverse government bond fund. If you own Treasuries, now is time to take profits.  

4. Indian Equities (Sensex)--While generally bearish on equities, Faber would advise the gradual accumulation of Indian shares, noting that they are relatively cheap and represent good value. Over a longer time frame (10 years), Faber thinks Indian stocks could appreciate 7%, which is pretty good compared to other investment options.

5. Macro--"This system has become completely corrupted and is being run for the benefit of the billionaires and banking CEO's who have control of the politicians." Faber has harsh words for Warren Buffett, noting that the investment guru profits not because of his genius, but at the expense of the American taxpayer. Buffett represents the very worst when it comes to crony capitalism. His BAC investment will likely prove very profitable, courtesy of the taxpaying middle-class and Buffett's straw man President whom he controls.

Happy trading!

Black Swan Insights


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