Investment Ideas from the Barron's Roundtable


Find out what the word's top investors are doing with their money during these tumultuous times.

Bill Gross of PIMCO-- "Our best idea therefore is a 10-year Australian or Canadian bond. A 10-year Canadian government bond yields 2.5%. A10-year Aussie bond yields 4.5%. "

Marc Faber--In the near term the stock market is oversold, and a bounce to between 1240 and 1280 on the S&P 500 is possible. New highs above the May 2 high at 1370 are most unlikely for next six to 12 months.

I'm not buying anything right now. But if stocks dropped another 10% to 20%, I might add to the positions I mentioned in the Midyear Roundtable. I also maintain my recommendation to short Salesforce.com [CRM]

Gold is likely to correct, possibly by $100 or $150, but I continue to recommend gradual accumulation.

Archie MacAllaster-- I like some of the insurance companies more than the banks. Hartford Financial Services [HIG] has a book value of $43 a share, and the stock trades around 19. It yields more than 2%. Hartford raised its dividend this year to 40 cents a share from 20 cents, although it was a lot higher before the financial crisis in 2008. Hartford could earn $3 a share this year, so on a price/earnings basis it is very cheap.

Fred Hickey---  I stay with my secular bull-market play in gold. I own bullion and gold exchange-traded funds. The better opportunity right now is in gold-mining stocks. They have underperformed for a while. They are going to get a huge boost on price alone. I like Agnico-Eagle Mines [AEM], Newmont Mining [NEM] and Yamana Gold [AUY] for the second half of the year.

We were short since May a dozen semiconductor stocks, but I have covered them. I wouldn't be short anything now, because I don't know when the Fed is going to pull the trigger on QE.

Felix Zulauf ---I predicted in the Midyear Roundtable ("Buy Low, Stay Nimble," June 13) that
the stock market would go to a low in the fall. The next few weeks will be extremely volatile. I expect the market to go below the latest lows in September.

The central bank will come in to provide liquidity, but timidly at first because the Fed was bashed for QE2. After the fall low, equities will recover part of what they lost into the turn of the year and then fall again. Economies around the world most likely will be in recession next year.
Confidence in our currencies, policy makers and central banks is going down the drain. That will be reflected in a rising gold price. I have long said this isn't an environment for investing in stocks. Hold cash in the form of short- to medium-term Treasuries. Own a lot of gold, and don't have debt.

Mario Gabelli --The volatility we saw in the markets in May 2010 --  hedge funds trying to protect themselves using ETFs [exchange-traded funds] --  has returned, with the result that good and bad stocks are getting crushed. It is hard to figure out where to allocate and reallocate capital. On the other hand, we are getting pretty decent cash flows in certain products such as utilities, where we have taken advantage of the decline in stocks like NextEra Energy [NEE]. One position to which we have added is National Fuel Gas [NFG]. Shares of the company, which is partly a utility and partly a shale-gas play, fell to 55 from
75.
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I have failed to include Abbey Joesph Cohen's view because she is a certifiable lunatic who only gets paid to pump stocks to retail investors. As such, her opinion is worth less than rat excrement and would only serve to harm readers. 

Black Swan Insights

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